Now that we have the Breeders’Cup entries 2019, let’s have a look at the best picks and best bets for the 2019 Breeders Cup Classic odds.
What this year’s Classic lacks in star power, it more than makes up for with parity
In the last week, the retirement of Catholic Boy (still listed at +2500) and the defection of Omaha Beach to the Dirt Mile (stilll listed at +800), leaves the field in an even greater state of uncertainty.
I can’t remember a Classic this wide-open since 2011 when Drosselmeyer won at 14/1, but even that field had a pair of elite runners in Uncle Mo and filly Havre de Grace.
A quick glance at the 2019 futures show McKinzie as the +350 favorite despite dropping his last start and repeatedly proving that his best distance is less than a mile and a quarter.
Breeders’ Cup Classic Odds
Let’s have a loook at the Breeder’s Cup Classic Odds:
- McKinzie +350
- Code of Honor +400
- Vino Rosso +600
- Elate +750 (possible for Distaff)
- Yoshida (+800)
- Mongolian Groom (+1200)
- Higher Power (+1400)
- Owendale (+1600)
- MathWizard (+2500)
- War of Will (+2500)
- Seeking the Soul (+3300)
Of all the 2019 Breeders’ Cup entries, the Classic has the most chaotic feel by a wide margin.
Code of Honor enters the race in perhaps the best form, having won his last three starts and all of those were in graded competition, but it’s worth noting that his last came via a controversial disqualification of Vino Rosso in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup.
Then there’s the girl. Elate is cross-entered in the Distaff, but her connections seem keen on testing the boys in the Classic. In truth, she may encounter less competition in this field after finishing second to Midnight Bisou and Blue Prize (both Distaffers) in her last two start.
When considering Breeders Cup odds
It’s best to remember how competitive these races and the Breeders Cup Odds are. Looking at the 2019 Classic a few weeks out, I’m looking for a nice price. There’s no way to discredit Code of Honor, but I’m not sold on this colt at +400, according to Bovada’s racebook.
I like Mongolian Groom at +1200 and think this runner is rounding into his best form at precisely the right time. Trained by Enebish Ganbat, Mongolian Groom defeated McKinzie on the square last out and finished third and second respectively in the Pacific Classic and San Diego Handicap prior to that performance.
Vino Rosso is another to respect at +600. The Todd Pletcher trainee is a true mile and a quarter type of horse and proved his affinity for the Santa Anita dirt winning the Gold Cup May 27.
He crossed the line before Code of Honor Sept. 28 in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont and certainly figures to be doing his best running on the big stage.
How to bet the Classic
I’ll be looking for some exotic combinations and big cash in the Classic this year. Not inspired by the favored Mckinzie, I’ll toss that runner and use the following horses in my exacta, trifecta and superfecta wagers:
- Vino Rosso
- Mongolian Groom
- Code of Honor
Who to take in the futures market
I’ll go with Mongolian Groom at the square price of +1200. He will handle the trip and seems to like Santa Anita. This west coast-based horse won’t have to overcome any shipping difficulties and should be a live runner.
Betting the Exotics
I’ll simply rely on basic boxes in the exacta, tri and super wagering. Let’s go with the quartet listed above of Vino Rosso, Mongolian Groom, Code of Honor, and Owendale.
Respectively, the $1 exacta, tri and super wagers would cost $12, $24 and $24. I think there will be enough value at all rungs of these bets to justify those costs.
Other Angles to Consider
This year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic looks absolutely devoid of quality speed runners. One of the factors that confused me the most about this race is that I can’t accurately guess where the pace will come from.
Santa Anita is a historically speed favoring track, so whoever is able to gain the early advantage could be disproportionately dangerous. Jockeys and trainers assessing this race will make game-time decisions about how to adjust race tactics to prosper.
Horse like War of Will and McKinzie may be the most tactical runners of the group and should be considered for this reason alone.
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