Offtrack Betting Ontario brings you a comprehensive guide with expert Breeders Stakes 2019 picks regarding the race which takes place at Woodbine race track.
Breeders’ Stakes 2019 Entries
The mile and a half challenge over the turf course features the rematch of Tone Broke (5/2) and Avie’s Flatter (2/1) who ran 1-2 in the Prince of Wales Stakes July 23 over the dirt course at Fort Erie.
Avie’s Flatter finished two full lengths behind Tone Broke in that race, but gets the nod as the morning line favorite due to his success on turf. Avie’s Flatter is 1 for 2 on grass, notably winning the Grade 3 Transylvania at Keeneland in April while Tone Broke has never attempted the green.
Here’s a look at the Breeders’ Stakes 2019 entries and odds:
- Seguimi 20/1
- Flashymeister 20/1
- Lucas n’ Lori 8/1
- Rising Star 10/1
- Tone Broke 5/2
- Pay for Peace 20/1
- Avie’s Flatter 2/1
- He’s a Macho Man 6/1
- Encierro 4/1
Breeders’ Stakes 2019 Predictions
This race doesn’t look that difficult to handicap on paper. Before I get into some bottom line picks and wagering strategies, let me make some general Breeders Stakes 2019 predictions about this field:
- There will be no longshot winner. Any horse listed at double digit odds in this race, looks several lenghts slower than the top 2-3 contenders. It’s hard to project the kind of improvement any of them would need to move forward.
- In a race where nobody apparently wants the early lead, the first horse out of the gate will be Seguimi. I don’t know how far he’ll take them, but he’s the likely pacesetter at the quarter and half mile poles.
- Either Rising Star or Flashymeister will finish last. One may or may not outrun their odds, but don’t look for either to crack the top three. Just too slow.
- Tone Broke will handle the new surface
Breeders’ Stakes 2019 Picks and Wagers
No beating around the bush, I like Tone Broke despite his lack of turf experience. The Steve Asmussen trainee was much the best against Avie’s Flatter on the dirt and seems to have a higher ceiling than his chief rival.
Here’s the issue…I am not going to like the price on either Tone Broke or Avie’s Flatter, and they are going to be extremely tough to beat out of the exacta once again. As a bettor, this means I’ll have to do something more exotic and try to create value.
My plan is to play the trifecta multiple times and take a crack or two in the second and third rungs of the bet. Here’s what I’m thinking:
- 1st: 5,7
- 2nd: 5,7,9
- 3rd: 1,5,7,9
Cost = $8 for $1 base bet
I might be making a simple and obvious wager here, but I’ll try to catch Seguimi at 20/1 in the third spot to spice things up a bit. This is only an $8 bet for a dollar, so I’ll likely play many more multiples than that with the point being to nail the trifecta rather than just “have” it.
The Breeders’ Stakes should bring enough players out of the woodwork to fatten the prices a little, and that works for me. For regular betting odds and free picks be sure to check back with us frequently!
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