Queen’s Plate Odds 2019

The favourites to win the race are the following horses and odds:

• Avie’s Flatter 5/2
• Skywire 3/1
• One Bad Boy 6/1

With at least 10 runners set to go, the conversation has to begin with Avie’s Flatter, who is listed around 5/2 in most of the future books.

The former Grade 3 stakes winner was last seen finishing 6th in the Graded 2 American Turf on Derby Day at Churchill, but has worked forwardly over the all-weather track at Woodbine and will get some obvious class relief in a race restricted to Canadian-bred horses. 

• Avie’s Flatter 5/2
• Skywire 3/1
• One Bad Boy 6/1
• Desert Ride 8/1
• Tone Broke 10/1
• Bold Script 12/1
• Pay for Peace 14/1
• Federal Law 16/1
• Rising Star 18/1
• Krachenwagen 20/1

The Big 3

On paper, there’s not a ton separating the top three contenders. Avie’s Flatter, Skywire, and One Bad Boy recorded last-race Beyer Speed Figures of 86, 87 and 89 respectively.

Skywire ran very well in his last start, finishig second in the Grade 3 Marine Stakes despite a wide trip and being forced to chase a dawdling pace. He loves the Woodbine surface and will certainly vye for post time favoritism. 

One Bad Boy ships in from Golden Gate Fields where the Richard Baltas trainee set the pace in the Alcatraz Stakes May 19 before tiring to finish second. His Beyer of 89 in that effort would make him formidable here if able to repeat that effort. The new venue is a question mark, but handicappers will have to respect his early speed. 

Finding Value

Once past the top three choices, the outlook on this field gets a little blurry. There’s a lot of steam behind Pay for Peace at 14/1, after the rapidly-improving three year-old won the Plate Trial Stakes at 19/1 on June 8.

The added distance of that event seemed to do the trick, and more ground in the Queen’s Plate won’t hurt his chances. If there’s a double digit odds horse who can threaten the top three, it’s likely this guy. 

Rising Star (18/1) was only beaten by 1 3/4-lengths while finishing behind Pay fo Peace in the Plate Trial, and it’s worth noting that he encountered some traffic down the backstretch. Improvement will be required for the only maiden in the field, but he’s worth keeping an eye on. 

Desert Ride and Bold Script will try to join the trend of fillies beating the boys in this race. 4 fillies have won the Queen’s Plate since 2011, including Wonder Gadot last year. Both would need slight improvement, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see either run well. 

How to bet the Queen’s Plate 

All things considered, Skywire seems to most reliable horse to back in this race. I’m not crazy about the price I’m likely to find, but I will try to create some value in the exotic wagers.

In the trifecta, I’ll use Skywire in first and second place, keying Avie’s Flatter in second and third, while punching the “ALL” Button around them. To clarify the confusion, my Queen’s Plate pick will look like this:

• Trifecta 1: Skywire/Avie’s Flatter/ALL
• Trfiecta 2: Skywire/ALL/Avie’s Flatter 

Be sure to check Bodog, Sports Interaction and William Hill for updated Queen’s Plate odds and raceday wagers.  

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